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General Philatelic/Gen. Discussion : Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

 

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Logistical1
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19 Oct 2011
01:14:11am
I use a 2011 Scott Pocket Stamp Catalogues to determine the value of the stamps I am selling, trading or buying. However I noticed that the value of stamps listed as using the Scott 2009 or earlier catalogues are a lot higher. Why?

Mike
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Patches
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Liz

19 Oct 2011
01:46:50am
re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

I think part of the reason is the value of the US$ against other currencies in 2010 (low) vs 2008 (high). Scott prices are in US$ as you know.

In many cases the catalogue values of stamps other than USA stamps have dramatically risen in value in the 2011 catalogue.

Supply and demand, rarity of items, etc. also determines the values. These seem to change evey year.

Sometimes I think the people who do the valuation in the Scott catalogues just pick a number out of a hat and go with it.

Scott values are a lot lower than a lot of other catalogues, i.e. Stanley Gibbons especially for UK and Western Europe countries.

Liz

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ScanStamps
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19 Oct 2011
08:28:38am
re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

I have never quite understood Scott, when it comes to valuations for anything other than US and Canadian stamps.

I use "local" catalogues for most of the areas I collect and the main thing I notice is the way these publications' values seem to be far more tied to actual scarcity than Scott. Last week I was working on some Denmark to be put on eBay and noticed how many listings in Swedish "Facit"/Danish "AFA" were massively different from Scott. Not by small percentages, but by multiples... like $3.00 in Scott, $15.00-20.00 in the Scandinavian catalogues. Now, if Scott truly were "retail" (as they sometimes claim to be), that might work... but collectors in the US expect to pay 20-50% of catalogue value, just like collectors in Europe, do... vs. their OWN catalogues.

I don't have a lot of faith in Scott's ability to accurately reflect the "relative" pricing of non-US stamps... but I have to use it, for the numbering.


Peter

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cdj1122
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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

19 Oct 2011
01:19:14pm
re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

My sometimes humble opinion

Since Scott does not sell stamps, I do not see how their listings can really be considered "prices".
A reasonably honest attempt to indicate comparative rarity, perhaps, but remember that once their data is assembled it has to be proofed, then printed, and the books distributed. That process takes months although I suppose with modern computers not requiring as long a lead time as in the past when I recall one Scott spokesperson admitting that some six or more months elapsed in that process. That means that on average, Scott's numbers are likely to be at least a year old and in a vibrant trading area, out of date.

Because of the foregoing, and the obviously gross, at times, differences between what Scott shows and other seemingly far more accurate local catalogs show, I have avoided using the word "Value" when referring to the numbers provided by Scott. I prefer and have made a conscious effort to refer to the Scott Listing, not the Scott Value.
I know that that is only a smantic difference, but over the fifty years I have been playing with these little pieces of paper there have been innumerable occasions when a fellow collector has been led far astray by thinking that the Scott Listings are somehow accurate reflections of the actual retail value.
I wish that other knowledgeable collectors would try that simple word substitution and perhaps after a while it could become customary for the majority of collectors to call the Scott listings what they really are, comparative listings.
And that does not even begin to dig into the difference between actual resale value compared to a stamp's Scott Catalog listing.

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".... You may think you understood what you thought I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you think you heard is not what I thought I meant. .... "
amsd
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Editor, Seal News; contributor, JuicyHeads

19 Oct 2011
02:52:39pm

Auctions
re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

Charlie, you are probably right about listing vs value. You are certainly right that Scott is no longer a seller of stamps, although that's how the catalogue began, as a price sheet. And you are right that there is significant lead time in compiling, proofing, formatting, and printing the catalogues.

I don't believe that the lag time, though, has much influence on listings (how'd I do, charlie?); it's not the six months; instead, it's wrong amounts.

For years, for instance, many of the Famous Women from the German definitive series were vastly over priced. I believe they are more accurately listed now, but it's taken Scott years to list them with values commensurate with their availability. The same is true of many Czech issues that for years were found clogging packets and mixtures but priced by Scott as if rare when, in fact, they are readily available, abundant CTOs.

and, within US, i have never, ever, ever seen ANY of the submarines from the prestige booklet used or on cover, but the hi value carries a Scott (2009) listing of $5. Impossible.

I think Scott vastly underlists many recent issues that are truly quite difficult to find. And, when they get around to listing on-cover usages, their estimates are likely to be wildly low for their supply. We'll see.

Interesting conversation.

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"Save the USPS, buy stamps; save the hobby, use commemoratives"

juicyheads.com/link.php?PLJZJP
Logistical1
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19 Oct 2011
06:51:19pm
re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

Since I only collect US stamps I rely on Scott to at least bench mark what I should be paying for a particular stamp. I am not trying to place a value on my collection as it is priceless to me :) But if I am trading Scott value for Scott value and the person I am trading with is using the 2009 value and I am using the lower 2011 value, I am getting the short end of the deal.

Take a look at several US items in the auction using the 2009 value and compare it to the 2011 value and there is a 50% difference in Scott values.

US currency fluctuations would not explain the decrease in stamp prices from 2009 to 2011. If the dollar was worth less in 2011, and stamps being a commodity, then the price of stamps would rise in US dollars and decrease for other currencies. Perhaps the limited interest in US stamps worldwide is driving the prices down or we are printing too many stamps in the US.

I realize value is subjective, a stamp dealer would probably add most of my collection to his penny sale. Think about it though if there is no demand for the rarest stamp on earth does it have value?

If Scott lists a used stamp at .10 in their catalog and I can buy the stamp for half the listing price does that mean the Scott listing values will eventually reflect the new lower price? Personally I think older US stamp values will increase in the next decade as nobody enjoys collecting stickers.



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Patches
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Liz

19 Oct 2011
07:11:53pm
re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

You are quite right. I have the currency theory of mine backwards. :(

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cdj1122
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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

20 Oct 2011
11:21:58am
re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

" ...Think about it though if there is no demand for the rarest stamp on earth does it have value? ..."
In fact, I have read articles in Linn's and the now defunct, but much missed, Western Stamp Collector that pointed out extremely rare stamps from unpopular areas that were listed in the catalogs as barely more than the cost of the postage to send a check though the mail.(Postage was three cents in the US then.)

In the late 1940s, Herman Hurst wrote about the effect of popularity on the well known supply vs. demand curve.
One thing that I recall was that he explained that, (at that time,) Chinese Republic stamps (1910 or so to 1950) were a drug on the market, because there were few native Chinese collectors due to the effects of the twenty years of war and revolution, and the supply seemed vast with many difficult overprints as provinces were lost, captured and recaptured, and the issuing authorities lost their heads, sometimes literally. That situation was complicated by the inability, and in many cases unwillingness, of non-Chinese collectors to deal with secret marks, multiple printers, compound perforations and confusing overprints in non-Roman fonts.
At the time, and for about twenty years thereafter, multi stamp collections, remainders and mixtures were available from dealers for the classic "pittance" simply because stamp dealers, affected by the factors mentioned just wanted to pull out a few obviously attractive issues from whatever stock fell into their hands and sell the balance for just about anything that covered expenses.
Hurst also predicted that it was likely that some day when peace (and possibly the freedom to communicate with the outside world) and some level of prosperity came to China, regardless of the political climate, seemingly common stamps would have a great price bump as both native Chinese and interested collectors tried to fill in album pages long neglected.

In recent years I have watched as the market as well as the prices realized for Chinese stamps has ballooned, and recalling Hursts' explanation and prediction wished I had bought even more of those common stamps.

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".... You may think you understood what you thought I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you think you heard is not what I thought I meant. .... "
amsd
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Editor, Seal News; contributor, JuicyHeads

20 Oct 2011
11:54:14am

Auctions
re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

Price is always determined more by demand than supply. I wrote about this here and in a series of articles documenting some rather rare tied seals: http://juicyheads.com/link.php?PLHAMYOY

The gist of it is that something like the inverted Jenny, with almost 100 copies, commands far more than something that is much rarer, but not appreciated nor wanted. Early tied seals, for instance, command much larger prices than recent tied seals, but are much more common. Seals from 1908 through 1924 are relatively abundant, with known tied examples ranging from 93 to 298. I'm sure that there are others out there; and new ones are being recorded daily due to the efforts of a few folks who are trying to create a comprehensive census of tied seals. From 1950 through today, the year with the highest total number of tied seals is under 50, but these command, generally, much smaller prices, not because of supply but demand. Now, it may be that folks know there are caches out there (and there may be for all I know), but i think it's purely demand: there's little. And no tied seal is likely to come anywhere near the price of a sound inverted Jenny.

David

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"Save the USPS, buy stamps; save the hobby, use commemoratives"

juicyheads.com/link.php?PLJZJP
Logistical1
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20 Oct 2011
03:31:57pm
re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

Me being a relative neewbie I didn't know what a tied seal was, now I do. Thanks for the article link. I will have to keep my eye open for them in the future. Maybe I will send myself a bunch of Christmas cards this year with seals on them and see what I get back. lol

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Author/Postings
Members Picture
Logistical1

19 Oct 2011
01:14:11am

I use a 2011 Scott Pocket Stamp Catalogues to determine the value of the stamps I am selling, trading or buying. However I noticed that the value of stamps listed as using the Scott 2009 or earlier catalogues are a lot higher. Why?

Mike

Like
Login to Like
this post
Members Picture
Patches

Liz
19 Oct 2011
01:46:50am

re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

I think part of the reason is the value of the US$ against other currencies in 2010 (low) vs 2008 (high). Scott prices are in US$ as you know.

In many cases the catalogue values of stamps other than USA stamps have dramatically risen in value in the 2011 catalogue.

Supply and demand, rarity of items, etc. also determines the values. These seem to change evey year.

Sometimes I think the people who do the valuation in the Scott catalogues just pick a number out of a hat and go with it.

Scott values are a lot lower than a lot of other catalogues, i.e. Stanley Gibbons especially for UK and Western Europe countries.

Liz

Like
Login to Like
this post
Members Picture
ScanStamps

19 Oct 2011
08:28:38am

re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

I have never quite understood Scott, when it comes to valuations for anything other than US and Canadian stamps.

I use "local" catalogues for most of the areas I collect and the main thing I notice is the way these publications' values seem to be far more tied to actual scarcity than Scott. Last week I was working on some Denmark to be put on eBay and noticed how many listings in Swedish "Facit"/Danish "AFA" were massively different from Scott. Not by small percentages, but by multiples... like $3.00 in Scott, $15.00-20.00 in the Scandinavian catalogues. Now, if Scott truly were "retail" (as they sometimes claim to be), that might work... but collectors in the US expect to pay 20-50% of catalogue value, just like collectors in Europe, do... vs. their OWN catalogues.

I don't have a lot of faith in Scott's ability to accurately reflect the "relative" pricing of non-US stamps... but I have to use it, for the numbering.


Peter

Like
Login to Like
this post

scanstamps.blogspot. ...

Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
19 Oct 2011
01:19:14pm

re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

My sometimes humble opinion

Since Scott does not sell stamps, I do not see how their listings can really be considered "prices".
A reasonably honest attempt to indicate comparative rarity, perhaps, but remember that once their data is assembled it has to be proofed, then printed, and the books distributed. That process takes months although I suppose with modern computers not requiring as long a lead time as in the past when I recall one Scott spokesperson admitting that some six or more months elapsed in that process. That means that on average, Scott's numbers are likely to be at least a year old and in a vibrant trading area, out of date.

Because of the foregoing, and the obviously gross, at times, differences between what Scott shows and other seemingly far more accurate local catalogs show, I have avoided using the word "Value" when referring to the numbers provided by Scott. I prefer and have made a conscious effort to refer to the Scott Listing, not the Scott Value.
I know that that is only a smantic difference, but over the fifty years I have been playing with these little pieces of paper there have been innumerable occasions when a fellow collector has been led far astray by thinking that the Scott Listings are somehow accurate reflections of the actual retail value.
I wish that other knowledgeable collectors would try that simple word substitution and perhaps after a while it could become customary for the majority of collectors to call the Scott listings what they really are, comparative listings.
And that does not even begin to dig into the difference between actual resale value compared to a stamp's Scott Catalog listing.

Like
Login to Like
this post

".... You may think you understood what you thought I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you think you heard is not what I thought I meant. .... "
Members Picture
amsd

Editor, Seal News; contributor, JuicyHeads
19 Oct 2011
02:52:39pm

Auctions

re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

Charlie, you are probably right about listing vs value. You are certainly right that Scott is no longer a seller of stamps, although that's how the catalogue began, as a price sheet. And you are right that there is significant lead time in compiling, proofing, formatting, and printing the catalogues.

I don't believe that the lag time, though, has much influence on listings (how'd I do, charlie?); it's not the six months; instead, it's wrong amounts.

For years, for instance, many of the Famous Women from the German definitive series were vastly over priced. I believe they are more accurately listed now, but it's taken Scott years to list them with values commensurate with their availability. The same is true of many Czech issues that for years were found clogging packets and mixtures but priced by Scott as if rare when, in fact, they are readily available, abundant CTOs.

and, within US, i have never, ever, ever seen ANY of the submarines from the prestige booklet used or on cover, but the hi value carries a Scott (2009) listing of $5. Impossible.

I think Scott vastly underlists many recent issues that are truly quite difficult to find. And, when they get around to listing on-cover usages, their estimates are likely to be wildly low for their supply. We'll see.

Interesting conversation.

Like
Login to Like
this post

"Save the USPS, buy stamps; save the hobby, use commemoratives"

juicyheads.com/link. ...
Members Picture
Logistical1

19 Oct 2011
06:51:19pm

re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

Since I only collect US stamps I rely on Scott to at least bench mark what I should be paying for a particular stamp. I am not trying to place a value on my collection as it is priceless to me :) But if I am trading Scott value for Scott value and the person I am trading with is using the 2009 value and I am using the lower 2011 value, I am getting the short end of the deal.

Take a look at several US items in the auction using the 2009 value and compare it to the 2011 value and there is a 50% difference in Scott values.

US currency fluctuations would not explain the decrease in stamp prices from 2009 to 2011. If the dollar was worth less in 2011, and stamps being a commodity, then the price of stamps would rise in US dollars and decrease for other currencies. Perhaps the limited interest in US stamps worldwide is driving the prices down or we are printing too many stamps in the US.

I realize value is subjective, a stamp dealer would probably add most of my collection to his penny sale. Think about it though if there is no demand for the rarest stamp on earth does it have value?

If Scott lists a used stamp at .10 in their catalog and I can buy the stamp for half the listing price does that mean the Scott listing values will eventually reflect the new lower price? Personally I think older US stamp values will increase in the next decade as nobody enjoys collecting stickers.



Like
Login to Like
this post
Members Picture
Patches

Liz
19 Oct 2011
07:11:53pm

re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

You are quite right. I have the currency theory of mine backwards. :(

Like
Login to Like
this post

Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
20 Oct 2011
11:21:58am

re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

" ...Think about it though if there is no demand for the rarest stamp on earth does it have value? ..."
In fact, I have read articles in Linn's and the now defunct, but much missed, Western Stamp Collector that pointed out extremely rare stamps from unpopular areas that were listed in the catalogs as barely more than the cost of the postage to send a check though the mail.(Postage was three cents in the US then.)

In the late 1940s, Herman Hurst wrote about the effect of popularity on the well known supply vs. demand curve.
One thing that I recall was that he explained that, (at that time,) Chinese Republic stamps (1910 or so to 1950) were a drug on the market, because there were few native Chinese collectors due to the effects of the twenty years of war and revolution, and the supply seemed vast with many difficult overprints as provinces were lost, captured and recaptured, and the issuing authorities lost their heads, sometimes literally. That situation was complicated by the inability, and in many cases unwillingness, of non-Chinese collectors to deal with secret marks, multiple printers, compound perforations and confusing overprints in non-Roman fonts.
At the time, and for about twenty years thereafter, multi stamp collections, remainders and mixtures were available from dealers for the classic "pittance" simply because stamp dealers, affected by the factors mentioned just wanted to pull out a few obviously attractive issues from whatever stock fell into their hands and sell the balance for just about anything that covered expenses.
Hurst also predicted that it was likely that some day when peace (and possibly the freedom to communicate with the outside world) and some level of prosperity came to China, regardless of the political climate, seemingly common stamps would have a great price bump as both native Chinese and interested collectors tried to fill in album pages long neglected.

In recent years I have watched as the market as well as the prices realized for Chinese stamps has ballooned, and recalling Hursts' explanation and prediction wished I had bought even more of those common stamps.

Like
Login to Like
this post

".... You may think you understood what you thought I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you think you heard is not what I thought I meant. .... "
Members Picture
amsd

Editor, Seal News; contributor, JuicyHeads
20 Oct 2011
11:54:14am

Auctions

re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

Price is always determined more by demand than supply. I wrote about this here and in a series of articles documenting some rather rare tied seals: http://juicyheads.com/link.php?PLHAMYOY

The gist of it is that something like the inverted Jenny, with almost 100 copies, commands far more than something that is much rarer, but not appreciated nor wanted. Early tied seals, for instance, command much larger prices than recent tied seals, but are much more common. Seals from 1908 through 1924 are relatively abundant, with known tied examples ranging from 93 to 298. I'm sure that there are others out there; and new ones are being recorded daily due to the efforts of a few folks who are trying to create a comprehensive census of tied seals. From 1950 through today, the year with the highest total number of tied seals is under 50, but these command, generally, much smaller prices, not because of supply but demand. Now, it may be that folks know there are caches out there (and there may be for all I know), but i think it's purely demand: there's little. And no tied seal is likely to come anywhere near the price of a sound inverted Jenny.

David

Like
Login to Like
this post

"Save the USPS, buy stamps; save the hobby, use commemoratives"

juicyheads.com/link. ...
Members Picture
Logistical1

20 Oct 2011
03:31:57pm

re: Scott Values and determing value from supply AND demand

Me being a relative neewbie I didn't know what a tied seal was, now I do. Thanks for the article link. I will have to keep my eye open for them in the future. Maybe I will send myself a bunch of Christmas cards this year with seals on them and see what I get back. lol

Like
Login to Like
this post
        

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