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Sales, Swaps, Auction & Approvals/Auction Disc. : Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

 

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michael78651
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03 Dec 2011
08:59:17am
On the page that shows a member's open bids, the total amount of the bids is shown at the bottom of the table. Would it be possible to do the same on the page that shows the total amount won? Doesn't have to be broken out by seller, but just a simple total to help keep track of how much has been purchased. Thanks!
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auldstampguy
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Collector, Webmaster

19 Feb 2012
07:11:39pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Hi Michael,
I have made the changes to the seller's list. I added a sum by buyer as well as a grand total. This obviously works over the time period selected.

Regards ... Tim.

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oliver_black

22 Feb 2012
12:06:56pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Didn't exactly know where to post this question except here, (the $$$ seemed to be a good sign) so forgive me for that and for probably not searching even more deeply for an answer than I already have.... here goes...
Is there any way to look up what a lot (that has been sold) actually went for? If so, how?

Thanx,

Oliver

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auldstampguy
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22 Feb 2012
12:28:32pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Hi Oliver,
If you are the buyer or the seller involved in the auction, you can see the auction information after it closes, but as a general observer there is no way at the moment to see the auction details once it has closed.

Regards ... Tim.

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musicman
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APS #213005

22 Feb 2012
08:29:55pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

If you are interested in how much a lot went for, you might try sending the winning party a private email and (politely) asking them if they would mind telling you how much they ended up winning it for.....


....just an idea....




Randy

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michael78651
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22 Feb 2012
09:50:52pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Randy!!!!!!!! What if it is someone's wife or husband incognito asking that question?????

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musicman
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APS #213005

22 Feb 2012
11:06:39pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

....as long as its not MINE....!

LOL


(mine wouldn't do that, anyway!)

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Bobstamp
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23 Feb 2012
01:58:46am
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

michael78651:

How do we spell "divorce lawyer"? Seriously, a wife or husband snooping into a spouse's email is just not something that a good marriage is based on, and why would anyone want to stay in a bad marriage? I've heard more than one stamp collector admit that he hides his stamp purchases from his wife. That's not marriage, to my way of thinking.

Bob

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DRYER
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The past is a foreign country, they do things different there.

23 Feb 2012
12:42:02pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Bob:

You've got to think outside your stamp box.

John Derry

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michael78651
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Moderator, MT Member

23 Feb 2012
01:28:57pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

I remember early in my marriage my wife asking me a couple of times how much money was I spending on stamps and model trains. I told her that if she wanted to know, the price tags are on the model train boxes, and the checkbook is in the drawer. She never asked me again, and I don't think she ever looked either. I think just knowing that I was being open about it and the information was there if she wanted to see it was enough. Hiding things just raises suspicions about other things as well.

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oliver_black

23 Feb 2012
02:22:00pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

OK, got my answer, and to be candid, I don't think it made much sense, especially for a hobby web site that wants to be pro-active in/for its interests. OK, who am I, a newbie here, aiming to tell you folks what to do? Nope. Just an interested party, so I'll give you my reasons.

I have bid and contemplated bidding on lots listed here, offering what I thought, at the time, was a reasonably fair price. Ultimately, I lose that item(s) to an unknown bid. I haven't learned anything of the real value of the lot except that it was higher than my bid.

What did I really learn that would help me be a better buyer next time around. For all I know, I could be wasting my time even venturing a bid due to my either being "too cheap" or too dumb to submit a more reasonable bid. My alternative is to contact the buyer and/or seller and waste their time asking a question they might choose to ignore anyway. Ultimately, I'd probably just stop bidding and just send notes of frustration to the Discussion section.

It is also a gross over-simplification to say "just enter the maximum you want to pay," and here is why. If I want to bid on several lots, the sum total of all my maximums per lot might exceed what I want to allocate in the aggregate to the hobby that day/week or month.

Seems it should be relatively easy to maintain a "sold" file without much programming effort.

As I said, just my 2 cents worth.


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michael78651
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23 Feb 2012
04:18:13pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Oliver, Ah, you didn't read the message from our Wizard. He said there is no way to see what you want "at the moment". There have been many changes on this site since I joined about two years ago. Our Wizard gets plenty of ideas from us to make the site even better.

Hmmm, but now that I re-read my suggestion and re-read yours, ours are both the same, but they were added to the seller's side. I, too meant the buyer's side....

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auldstampguy
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23 Feb 2012
07:43:57pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Hi Oliver,
There are a few different things to consider in thinking about implementing your request to see the details of the auction that has closed, that you really wanted to win (I think we all have experienced your frustration ). I have thought about writing a program to do this a few times. When I'm following an auction lot, I'm usually following a number of lots, and then they close and I think, I'd really like to know how much that one finally went for, but I can't remember to the details of the lot e.g. who was the seller, what exactly was the description of the lot? So if you had the ability to search for the lot that had closed, how would you (or others) want to search for the lot?

And here is another question for you. If you were bidding on an auction lot which you lost, if you had the ability to look up the details of the auction lot, would you want the ability to send the seller a message encouraging them to post another copy of the stamp you wanted in the auction if they had one? Would the sellers even like this option being there?

As our friend Dan says, "all good thoughts".

Regards ... Tim.

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Woodstock

24 Feb 2012
07:28:46am
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

... just a personal observation.

Many, if not most of the winning bids on the SOR Auction are far below market, and thus would not necessarily be an accurate measure of that stamp's market value or a trend. Oh yes, there are those occasions when a bidding war of sorts produces a sense that market value must be higher than that anticipated. However, my experience suggests that this is more a specific buyer's quest to fill a vacant spot than a market trend.

...and a question.

If a member is interested in a particular stamp, either as a bidder or an interested party, and places the stamp on a watch list, would the final selling price of the lot continue to be visible in the watch list after the lot has been sold?

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auldstampguy
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24 Feb 2012
08:04:33am
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Hi Bob,
In answer to your question about the watch list, the information on the watch list does not continue after the lot closes. When the lot closes the watch lists associated with the lot are deleted.

Regards. Tim

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oliver_black

24 Feb 2012
12:33:46pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Thank you for responding, Your Wizardry:

It seems to me that the "Watch list" should be the jump-off point for ultimately knowing what a lot sold for. What I mean is this, presumably one puts every item on which they bid on their watch list. Surely a non-winning bidder would like to know what the item sold for. Also, a non-bidder might want to follow a particular lot, so it goes on their watch list. More than likely, a person who has no interest on an item does not usually put it on their watch list. Thus, it is the watch list items that only need to have the final price given and available. If you haven't put it on your watch list, the final price is not directly available to you. That also means that all items that were on a watch list should not immediately disappear once the auction closes. You could set up an arbitrary cut-off date... say 90 days post auction close... after which an item's data is purged from everyone's watch list.

Oliver

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oliver_black

24 Feb 2012
12:46:57pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Sorry Sir Wizard, forgot to respond to your second question.

To be honest, I'm kind of surprised you even asked that question. As a newbie, I admit I am unfamiliar with the system and the usual practices, but I would have thought it was perfectly reasonable for someone to send an email to a seller that said, "If you had another Scott USA zzzz like the one you sold on auction today, I'd be interested in buying it from you. What can we work out?" Or words to that effect.


And a comment to Woodstock.... I've always felt that, generally speaking, the most recent selling price of an item (via auction or otherwise) sets the current market value for that exact item under the same conditions in that market place. It may later go up or down for many, many reasons, but at the moment, that's it.

Oliver

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Woodstock

25 Feb 2012
07:43:01am
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Oliver- my comment was in reference to SOR exclusively. Accepting a selling price from one auction as market value or trend could be, and many times is quite misleading. Of course, if you find that this methodology works for you, then who am I to disagree.

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musicman
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APS #213005

26 Feb 2012
09:58:08am
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Many times, an item is bid on - and won - by someone who "had to have that stamp, no matter what."
An example; I personally have bid WAY over catalog/going rate for something that I JUST WANTED, no matter what the current value.
Oliver said, "I've always felt that, generally speaking, the most recent selling price of an item (via auction or otherwise) sets the current market value for that exact item under the same conditions in that market place"
Does this mean that this item is worth what I OVERPAID for it? Is everyone then in WANT of this item like me?? I think not.
Just because one person bids outside the box for an item and wins does not mean that item is then worth that to everyone... this is an assumption, and an incorrect one.



Randy

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youpiao
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26 Feb 2012
10:57:41am
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

It does not even have to be a case of "I REALLY wanted it," for me to (seemingly) overbid on an item. (And this addresses the "Forget about sniping. Just bid your max, to begin with" argument.)

When I bid on multiple auction items from the same seller, I might win 3 or 4 lots, or more, at prices that were far below my maximum bid, because no one else bid on it. That enables me to bid much more than I might have otherwise, on the 1 or 2 lots with competitive bidding. If I win 5 lots at 15% of catalogue value, I can pay 120% of CV for that hot item attracting all the bids, and my average price for all the lots is still less than 1/3 of CV.

Tedski

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youpiao
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26 Feb 2012
11:19:50am
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

I know we've strayed a little from Oliver's question. I, too, would like to see prices realized. No, the prices realized for any particular items at any particular time do not necessarily relate to a supposed "true market value." However, over an extended period of time, you can get a feel for what the market is like for certain countries, time periods, or topics. Over the long run, paying attention to prices realized at auction helps you become a smarter buyer AND seller.

Tedski

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michael78651
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Moderator, MT Member

26 Feb 2012
12:43:10pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

I think you are talking about two different things here and combining it into one.

If I pay over catalog value for a stamp, that is the market value of that item on the day that I bought it. It does not relate to other similar items, only that one.

To determine a more truer retail value, then you have to look at the sales prices of similar items over a period of time. Now, you will also have to determine are you looking at the normal retail value of the item at a particular venue, or overall retail value at many venues.

For example, if fictitious Scott US #1234 (catalog value $5.00) mint, never hinged VF condition sells on SOR on average for $1.00, then that is the normal retail value on SOR for that stamp, and I should expect to pay around $1.00 for that stamp in the same condition.

If fictitious Scott US #1234 (catalog value $5.00) mint, never hinged VF condition sells on Bid Start on average for $2.00, then that is the normal retail value on Bid Start for that stamp.

If fictitious Scott US #1234 (catalog value $5.00) mint, never hinged VF condition sells on Ebay on average for $3.00, then that is the normal retail value on Ebay for that stamp.

If you are compiling a catalog, then the sales prices on those those three sales venues would have to be reconciled. Average retail form the three venues is $2.00, but does that reflect the true market value for that stamp, meaning that I should expect to pay $2.00 for that stamp? Not necessarily. How many have been sold at each of those venues? Did Ebay sell more at $3.00, or..... well, you see what I mean.

If you really had nothing else to do, you could track all of those sales, and it would tell you that if you wanted to buy that stamp, you would save money buying it on SOR. However, if it isn't sold that often on SOR, but it is on BidStart, and you want the stamp now rather than wait for someone to sell it on SOR, then you pay the higher price.

Anyone want to publish a catalog? Pricing can never be accurate, and is out of date even before the catalog is published. Thus, values are all relative and only a guide. Even prices realized at various venues are not consistent.

Ok, you can all wake up now. My discussion on market analysis is over....

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DRYER
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The past is a foreign country, they do things different there.

26 Feb 2012
01:04:33pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

To all Stamporama members with deep pockets:

I don't have a lot of money but I sure enjoy my stamp collection.

Calculators aside, I bid what I can afford.

Works for me.

John Derry

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auldstampguy
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Collector, Webmaster

26 Feb 2012
01:09:27pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

@John, and at least on Stamporama your approach usually gets you the items that you are wanting.

Tim.

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musicman
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APS #213005

26 Feb 2012
05:43:57pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Wake up, Woodstock....we're not done yet....lol




Ultimately, I'm with John D. - I don't have deep pockets either....I only bid what I can afford as well.

And I - like John - enjoy my collection....immensely!

....I don't CARE what the 'market value' of "US #1234" is, was or will be; if I want it and can afford to put a bid on it, I do...if I don't want it, even if it was 'valued' at $50 and I could feasibly buy it for $1, I STILL don't want it.

Why? because it's not worth that TO ME.

Market value, shmarket value.....if I don't want it, then it ISN'T WORTH ANYTHING....TO ME.


....just my 2 cents....




Randy

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michael78651
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26 Feb 2012
05:59:55pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

That's right, Randy. An item is not worth anything until someone buys it.

What we call money is only worth what it is, because we agree that the pieces of paper and metal are worth that much. Value is all in our imaginations.

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Bobstamp
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26 Feb 2012
10:05:46pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

A company in the Philippines, Poppe Stamps, seems to be proving that collectors will pay way more than "street prices" for stamps. It's the only company I know of that provides hi-res images of kazillions of common stamps, charges way more than any stamp shop or bourse dealer would dare, and is still in business after two, maybe three years.

Bob

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michael78651
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27 Feb 2012
12:16:47am
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Make that 5 years, Bob.

I don't understand it either. Plus they charge $5 shipping. They used to charge more, $1 for a 20 cent catalog value stamp. Now they charge just 49 cents, and they have almost 28,000 feedback.

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Bobstamp
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27 Feb 2012
01:40:41am
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Five years! How time flies…

For a while I had some interesting discussions with one of the owners — as I recall, it's a family business. He told me that many collectors don't care much about quality, and that they sell many damaged stamps despite the damage. I think one of the secrets is availability. Most people don't have stamp shops to go to, and hardly any on-line dealers are willing to mess about with minimum-value stamps. I think it's all about collectors who are "album stuffers" and have enough disposable income to spend on their hobby. I certainly do understand why someone would pay considerably more than catalogue value for a stamp they really want — I've done it myself, sometimes in the Stamporama auction.

Bob

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auldstampguy
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27 Feb 2012
06:50:50pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

I bought a few items from Poppe Stamps. They package the stamps extremely well, but it takes forever to get them from the Philippines.

Tim.

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oliver_black

03 Mar 2012
08:15:55pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

"I've always felt that, generally speaking, the most recent selling price of an item (via auction or otherwise) sets the current market value for that exact item under the same conditions in that market place. It may later go up or down for many, many reasons, but at the moment, that's it."

I admit my explanation (repeated above) was an oversimplification, but I still think it holds true even given the "I've got to have it now regardless of price" collector or the guy who buys from Mystic, etc. The point I was making, is that there is NO true market value, only the one which is set, however briefly, by one transaction and, as soon as the transaction is closed, the market value becomes what the next buyer will pay or the next seller will take.

Appraisals, catalog values, asking prices, etc. are all estimates... based on one or more of the following..recent sales, greed, a need for money, desperation, and wishful thinking.

And yes, I've been a cynic for most of my adult years, LOL


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musicman
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APS #213005

03 Mar 2012
09:08:32pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

So - what you are saying is that, with each and every individual transaction, the market value changes....every single time....

well then, with this "description" this applies to every single thing ever bought and sold, no matter what it may be.

So, your point therefore makes no point at all....

....you're right - you ARE a cynic!




Randy

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oliver_black

04 Mar 2012
12:30:01pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Actually, Randy, I also consider myself a realist. If you think there is one selling price for an item that satisfies all buyers and sellers at all times other than the price negotiated at the moment of sale, I would think you are a dreamer... no offense intended.

Other than that, I anxiously await the start of the baseball season.

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musicman
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APS #213005

04 Mar 2012
02:26:08pm
re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Oliver,

No offense taken!

And you are correct - I AM a dreamer; Without our dreams, life would be very dull....but that's a whole other discussion!

As far as THIS discussion goes, I believe we are BOTH correct.

...and I as well am anxiously awaiting the start of the baseball season, even though I do NOT agree with the expanding playoff berth!

We have a couple of BIG hitters now, here in the 'D' and an awesome pitcher as well - so it will be fun!

I will be happy to continue this discussion of baseball in the "Off-topic" area before I get chastised....LOL



Randy

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michael78651

Moderator, MT Member
03 Dec 2011
08:59:17am

On the page that shows a member's open bids, the total amount of the bids is shown at the bottom of the table. Would it be possible to do the same on the page that shows the total amount won? Doesn't have to be broken out by seller, but just a simple total to help keep track of how much has been purchased. Thanks!

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auldstampguy

Collector, Webmaster
19 Feb 2012
07:11:39pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Hi Michael,
I have made the changes to the seller's list. I added a sum by buyer as well as a grand total. This obviously works over the time period selected.

Regards ... Tim.

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oliver_black

22 Feb 2012
12:06:56pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Didn't exactly know where to post this question except here, (the $$$ seemed to be a good sign) so forgive me for that and for probably not searching even more deeply for an answer than I already have.... here goes...
Is there any way to look up what a lot (that has been sold) actually went for? If so, how?

Thanx,

Oliver

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auldstampguy

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22 Feb 2012
12:28:32pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Hi Oliver,
If you are the buyer or the seller involved in the auction, you can see the auction information after it closes, but as a general observer there is no way at the moment to see the auction details once it has closed.

Regards ... Tim.

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musicman

APS #213005
22 Feb 2012
08:29:55pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

If you are interested in how much a lot went for, you might try sending the winning party a private email and (politely) asking them if they would mind telling you how much they ended up winning it for.....


....just an idea....




Randy

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michael78651

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22 Feb 2012
09:50:52pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Randy!!!!!!!! What if it is someone's wife or husband incognito asking that question?????

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musicman

APS #213005
22 Feb 2012
11:06:39pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

....as long as its not MINE....!

LOL


(mine wouldn't do that, anyway!)

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Bobstamp

23 Feb 2012
01:58:46am

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

michael78651:

How do we spell "divorce lawyer"? Seriously, a wife or husband snooping into a spouse's email is just not something that a good marriage is based on, and why would anyone want to stay in a bad marriage? I've heard more than one stamp collector admit that he hides his stamp purchases from his wife. That's not marriage, to my way of thinking.

Bob

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The past is a foreign country, they do things different there.
23 Feb 2012
12:42:02pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Bob:

You've got to think outside your stamp box.

John Derry

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michael78651

Moderator, MT Member
23 Feb 2012
01:28:57pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

I remember early in my marriage my wife asking me a couple of times how much money was I spending on stamps and model trains. I told her that if she wanted to know, the price tags are on the model train boxes, and the checkbook is in the drawer. She never asked me again, and I don't think she ever looked either. I think just knowing that I was being open about it and the information was there if she wanted to see it was enough. Hiding things just raises suspicions about other things as well.

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oliver_black

23 Feb 2012
02:22:00pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

OK, got my answer, and to be candid, I don't think it made much sense, especially for a hobby web site that wants to be pro-active in/for its interests. OK, who am I, a newbie here, aiming to tell you folks what to do? Nope. Just an interested party, so I'll give you my reasons.

I have bid and contemplated bidding on lots listed here, offering what I thought, at the time, was a reasonably fair price. Ultimately, I lose that item(s) to an unknown bid. I haven't learned anything of the real value of the lot except that it was higher than my bid.

What did I really learn that would help me be a better buyer next time around. For all I know, I could be wasting my time even venturing a bid due to my either being "too cheap" or too dumb to submit a more reasonable bid. My alternative is to contact the buyer and/or seller and waste their time asking a question they might choose to ignore anyway. Ultimately, I'd probably just stop bidding and just send notes of frustration to the Discussion section.

It is also a gross over-simplification to say "just enter the maximum you want to pay," and here is why. If I want to bid on several lots, the sum total of all my maximums per lot might exceed what I want to allocate in the aggregate to the hobby that day/week or month.

Seems it should be relatively easy to maintain a "sold" file without much programming effort.

As I said, just my 2 cents worth.


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michael78651

Moderator, MT Member
23 Feb 2012
04:18:13pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Oliver, Ah, you didn't read the message from our Wizard. He said there is no way to see what you want "at the moment". There have been many changes on this site since I joined about two years ago. Our Wizard gets plenty of ideas from us to make the site even better.

Hmmm, but now that I re-read my suggestion and re-read yours, ours are both the same, but they were added to the seller's side. I, too meant the buyer's side....

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auldstampguy

Collector, Webmaster
23 Feb 2012
07:43:57pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Hi Oliver,
There are a few different things to consider in thinking about implementing your request to see the details of the auction that has closed, that you really wanted to win (I think we all have experienced your frustration ). I have thought about writing a program to do this a few times. When I'm following an auction lot, I'm usually following a number of lots, and then they close and I think, I'd really like to know how much that one finally went for, but I can't remember to the details of the lot e.g. who was the seller, what exactly was the description of the lot? So if you had the ability to search for the lot that had closed, how would you (or others) want to search for the lot?

And here is another question for you. If you were bidding on an auction lot which you lost, if you had the ability to look up the details of the auction lot, would you want the ability to send the seller a message encouraging them to post another copy of the stamp you wanted in the auction if they had one? Would the sellers even like this option being there?

As our friend Dan says, "all good thoughts".

Regards ... Tim.

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Woodstock

24 Feb 2012
07:28:46am

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

... just a personal observation.

Many, if not most of the winning bids on the SOR Auction are far below market, and thus would not necessarily be an accurate measure of that stamp's market value or a trend. Oh yes, there are those occasions when a bidding war of sorts produces a sense that market value must be higher than that anticipated. However, my experience suggests that this is more a specific buyer's quest to fill a vacant spot than a market trend.

...and a question.

If a member is interested in a particular stamp, either as a bidder or an interested party, and places the stamp on a watch list, would the final selling price of the lot continue to be visible in the watch list after the lot has been sold?

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auldstampguy

Collector, Webmaster
24 Feb 2012
08:04:33am

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Hi Bob,
In answer to your question about the watch list, the information on the watch list does not continue after the lot closes. When the lot closes the watch lists associated with the lot are deleted.

Regards. Tim

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oliver_black

24 Feb 2012
12:33:46pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Thank you for responding, Your Wizardry:

It seems to me that the "Watch list" should be the jump-off point for ultimately knowing what a lot sold for. What I mean is this, presumably one puts every item on which they bid on their watch list. Surely a non-winning bidder would like to know what the item sold for. Also, a non-bidder might want to follow a particular lot, so it goes on their watch list. More than likely, a person who has no interest on an item does not usually put it on their watch list. Thus, it is the watch list items that only need to have the final price given and available. If you haven't put it on your watch list, the final price is not directly available to you. That also means that all items that were on a watch list should not immediately disappear once the auction closes. You could set up an arbitrary cut-off date... say 90 days post auction close... after which an item's data is purged from everyone's watch list.

Oliver

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oliver_black

24 Feb 2012
12:46:57pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Sorry Sir Wizard, forgot to respond to your second question.

To be honest, I'm kind of surprised you even asked that question. As a newbie, I admit I am unfamiliar with the system and the usual practices, but I would have thought it was perfectly reasonable for someone to send an email to a seller that said, "If you had another Scott USA zzzz like the one you sold on auction today, I'd be interested in buying it from you. What can we work out?" Or words to that effect.


And a comment to Woodstock.... I've always felt that, generally speaking, the most recent selling price of an item (via auction or otherwise) sets the current market value for that exact item under the same conditions in that market place. It may later go up or down for many, many reasons, but at the moment, that's it.

Oliver

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Woodstock

25 Feb 2012
07:43:01am

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Oliver- my comment was in reference to SOR exclusively. Accepting a selling price from one auction as market value or trend could be, and many times is quite misleading. Of course, if you find that this methodology works for you, then who am I to disagree.

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musicman

APS #213005
26 Feb 2012
09:58:08am

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Many times, an item is bid on - and won - by someone who "had to have that stamp, no matter what."
An example; I personally have bid WAY over catalog/going rate for something that I JUST WANTED, no matter what the current value.
Oliver said, "I've always felt that, generally speaking, the most recent selling price of an item (via auction or otherwise) sets the current market value for that exact item under the same conditions in that market place"
Does this mean that this item is worth what I OVERPAID for it? Is everyone then in WANT of this item like me?? I think not.
Just because one person bids outside the box for an item and wins does not mean that item is then worth that to everyone... this is an assumption, and an incorrect one.



Randy

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youpiao

26 Feb 2012
10:57:41am

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

It does not even have to be a case of "I REALLY wanted it," for me to (seemingly) overbid on an item. (And this addresses the "Forget about sniping. Just bid your max, to begin with" argument.)

When I bid on multiple auction items from the same seller, I might win 3 or 4 lots, or more, at prices that were far below my maximum bid, because no one else bid on it. That enables me to bid much more than I might have otherwise, on the 1 or 2 lots with competitive bidding. If I win 5 lots at 15% of catalogue value, I can pay 120% of CV for that hot item attracting all the bids, and my average price for all the lots is still less than 1/3 of CV.

Tedski

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youpiao

26 Feb 2012
11:19:50am

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

I know we've strayed a little from Oliver's question. I, too, would like to see prices realized. No, the prices realized for any particular items at any particular time do not necessarily relate to a supposed "true market value." However, over an extended period of time, you can get a feel for what the market is like for certain countries, time periods, or topics. Over the long run, paying attention to prices realized at auction helps you become a smarter buyer AND seller.

Tedski

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michael78651

Moderator, MT Member
26 Feb 2012
12:43:10pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

I think you are talking about two different things here and combining it into one.

If I pay over catalog value for a stamp, that is the market value of that item on the day that I bought it. It does not relate to other similar items, only that one.

To determine a more truer retail value, then you have to look at the sales prices of similar items over a period of time. Now, you will also have to determine are you looking at the normal retail value of the item at a particular venue, or overall retail value at many venues.

For example, if fictitious Scott US #1234 (catalog value $5.00) mint, never hinged VF condition sells on SOR on average for $1.00, then that is the normal retail value on SOR for that stamp, and I should expect to pay around $1.00 for that stamp in the same condition.

If fictitious Scott US #1234 (catalog value $5.00) mint, never hinged VF condition sells on Bid Start on average for $2.00, then that is the normal retail value on Bid Start for that stamp.

If fictitious Scott US #1234 (catalog value $5.00) mint, never hinged VF condition sells on Ebay on average for $3.00, then that is the normal retail value on Ebay for that stamp.

If you are compiling a catalog, then the sales prices on those those three sales venues would have to be reconciled. Average retail form the three venues is $2.00, but does that reflect the true market value for that stamp, meaning that I should expect to pay $2.00 for that stamp? Not necessarily. How many have been sold at each of those venues? Did Ebay sell more at $3.00, or..... well, you see what I mean.

If you really had nothing else to do, you could track all of those sales, and it would tell you that if you wanted to buy that stamp, you would save money buying it on SOR. However, if it isn't sold that often on SOR, but it is on BidStart, and you want the stamp now rather than wait for someone to sell it on SOR, then you pay the higher price.

Anyone want to publish a catalog? Pricing can never be accurate, and is out of date even before the catalog is published. Thus, values are all relative and only a guide. Even prices realized at various venues are not consistent.

Ok, you can all wake up now. My discussion on market analysis is over....

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The past is a foreign country, they do things different there.
26 Feb 2012
01:04:33pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

To all Stamporama members with deep pockets:

I don't have a lot of money but I sure enjoy my stamp collection.

Calculators aside, I bid what I can afford.

Works for me.

John Derry

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auldstampguy

Collector, Webmaster
26 Feb 2012
01:09:27pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

@John, and at least on Stamporama your approach usually gets you the items that you are wanting.

Tim.

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musicman

APS #213005
26 Feb 2012
05:43:57pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Wake up, Woodstock....we're not done yet....lol




Ultimately, I'm with John D. - I don't have deep pockets either....I only bid what I can afford as well.

And I - like John - enjoy my collection....immensely!

....I don't CARE what the 'market value' of "US #1234" is, was or will be; if I want it and can afford to put a bid on it, I do...if I don't want it, even if it was 'valued' at $50 and I could feasibly buy it for $1, I STILL don't want it.

Why? because it's not worth that TO ME.

Market value, shmarket value.....if I don't want it, then it ISN'T WORTH ANYTHING....TO ME.


....just my 2 cents....




Randy

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michael78651

Moderator, MT Member
26 Feb 2012
05:59:55pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

That's right, Randy. An item is not worth anything until someone buys it.

What we call money is only worth what it is, because we agree that the pieces of paper and metal are worth that much. Value is all in our imaginations.

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Bobstamp

26 Feb 2012
10:05:46pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

A company in the Philippines, Poppe Stamps, seems to be proving that collectors will pay way more than "street prices" for stamps. It's the only company I know of that provides hi-res images of kazillions of common stamps, charges way more than any stamp shop or bourse dealer would dare, and is still in business after two, maybe three years.

Bob

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michael78651

Moderator, MT Member
27 Feb 2012
12:16:47am

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Make that 5 years, Bob.

I don't understand it either. Plus they charge $5 shipping. They used to charge more, $1 for a 20 cent catalog value stamp. Now they charge just 49 cents, and they have almost 28,000 feedback.

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Bobstamp

27 Feb 2012
01:40:41am

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Five years! How time flies…

For a while I had some interesting discussions with one of the owners — as I recall, it's a family business. He told me that many collectors don't care much about quality, and that they sell many damaged stamps despite the damage. I think one of the secrets is availability. Most people don't have stamp shops to go to, and hardly any on-line dealers are willing to mess about with minimum-value stamps. I think it's all about collectors who are "album stuffers" and have enough disposable income to spend on their hobby. I certainly do understand why someone would pay considerably more than catalogue value for a stamp they really want — I've done it myself, sometimes in the Stamporama auction.

Bob

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auldstampguy

Collector, Webmaster
27 Feb 2012
06:50:50pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

I bought a few items from Poppe Stamps. They package the stamps extremely well, but it takes forever to get them from the Philippines.

Tim.

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oliver_black

03 Mar 2012
08:15:55pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

"I've always felt that, generally speaking, the most recent selling price of an item (via auction or otherwise) sets the current market value for that exact item under the same conditions in that market place. It may later go up or down for many, many reasons, but at the moment, that's it."

I admit my explanation (repeated above) was an oversimplification, but I still think it holds true even given the "I've got to have it now regardless of price" collector or the guy who buys from Mystic, etc. The point I was making, is that there is NO true market value, only the one which is set, however briefly, by one transaction and, as soon as the transaction is closed, the market value becomes what the next buyer will pay or the next seller will take.

Appraisals, catalog values, asking prices, etc. are all estimates... based on one or more of the following..recent sales, greed, a need for money, desperation, and wishful thinking.

And yes, I've been a cynic for most of my adult years, LOL


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musicman

APS #213005
03 Mar 2012
09:08:32pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

So - what you are saying is that, with each and every individual transaction, the market value changes....every single time....

well then, with this "description" this applies to every single thing ever bought and sold, no matter what it may be.

So, your point therefore makes no point at all....

....you're right - you ARE a cynic!




Randy

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oliver_black

04 Mar 2012
12:30:01pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Actually, Randy, I also consider myself a realist. If you think there is one selling price for an item that satisfies all buyers and sellers at all times other than the price negotiated at the moment of sale, I would think you are a dreamer... no offense intended.

Other than that, I anxiously await the start of the baseball season.

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musicman

APS #213005
04 Mar 2012
02:26:08pm

re: Finding sale prices in the auction....determining market value

Oliver,

No offense taken!

And you are correct - I AM a dreamer; Without our dreams, life would be very dull....but that's a whole other discussion!

As far as THIS discussion goes, I believe we are BOTH correct.

...and I as well am anxiously awaiting the start of the baseball season, even though I do NOT agree with the expanding playoff berth!

We have a couple of BIG hitters now, here in the 'D' and an awesome pitcher as well - so it will be fun!

I will be happy to continue this discussion of baseball in the "Off-topic" area before I get chastised....LOL



Randy

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