Discussion - Member to Member Sales - Research Center
Discussion - Member to Member Sales - Research Center
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I generally keep an eye on the auction houses. I can tell you that prices have been going up at the auction houses for the past 9-12 months.
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I was just looking at Germany stamps during inflation and, uh…
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I think the general train of thought is that Covid was a boost to stamps the last two years, with people stuck at home more and perhaps starting work again on a collection they had set aside. The current round of inflation due to Covid recovery and the war doesn't look to me to be good for stamps. With people paying so much more for necessities like gas and food, there's less money for luxuries like stamps. I suppose the contrarian view would be that with investments like the stock market doing poorly there might be a boost in collectibles as an investment, but that would only affect high value, high priced philatelic items. If anyone feels differently I'd be interested in other viewpoints.
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I concur with Speaker point of view. Another reason for inflation is scarcity of resources. In the case of stamps this does not suddenly increase.
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I also agree with Bill (Speaker)'s remarks. The stamp market has to do with supply and demand, just like most things. Inflation often occurs when there is something happening on the supply side, with the demand staying the same or even going up because of perceived scarcity. This is what we see with fuel, food, raw materials like steel, paper and plastics. One cannot say that's also happening for non-essential goods like stamps. The supply is the same, perhaps even going up because of collections that come on to the market because many collectors unfortunately died during the pandemic. As has already been said here, many people will have less to spend on luxuries like stamp collections. I would expect a price drop sooner than a price rise.
On the other hand, new stamps may be affected by the lack of paper, but then again, new (i.e. recent) stamps were impossible to find anyway.
best wishes,
Jan-Simon
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The definition of inflation from my economics class was too much money (money supply) and too few goods. This definition was based upon monetary policy.
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Increasing or decreasing price is base on demand & material cost.
Increase the price if there's high demand on that particular stamp.
Increase the price on stamp hinges if cost of polyester material went up.
.
We haven't seen any price increase for French Polynesian stamps due to low demand. However, there's price increase in stamp supplies such as stamp album or refill pages. This is due to material cost increase or shortage parts at manufacture.
.
.
I know a seller increased the price even thought those stamps aren't in great demand. The Seller did that because his grocery & gasoline went up. The inflation was hurting him & his family.
Rogelio Lee
French Polynesia Stamp Club
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If you are thinking of stamps as an investment, as I want to do, there are a couple of considerations.
1. Fundamentally, if you get sentimentally attached to any investment, you are bound to lose money. For many of us, our stamp collections have sentimental value, up until the time our heirs need to disperse them.
2. It is useful to keep track of the date and price you paid for items as you add them to your collection. Then, at any given time in the future, you can easily determine if their market value can yield a positive net return. I use the "Rule of 72s" as a rule of thumb.
Rule of 72s. Divide a presumed rate (e.g., inflation) into 72. That number is the number of years it takes for the starting value (what you paid for the item) to double at that rate of growth.
For example, if I bought something 24 years ago that I paid $10 for, and I presume that inflation averaged 3% over those 24 years, then to just keep up with inflation, I need to sell that item for $20 today.
72/3 = 24
That number, 24, is the number of years it takes the investment to double in value.
Example 2: If I want to both cover inflation (3%) and get a compounded real rate of return for the item of say, 15%, then I need to sell that same item for $640.
72/18 = 4 years to double
24 years/4 = 6 doublings
1 $20
2 $40
3 $80
4 $160
5 $320
6 $640
Kinda scary when you compare the opportunity to use stamps as investments to other opportunities. BTW, the difference is called "Opportunity Cost".
-Paul
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I am often looking at selling prices at the collector car auctions and considering if owning a particular car would have been a worthy investment.
What should I be willing to pay for an original 1965 Dodge Coronet A990 Super Stock? They sold for around $5000 new in 1965. Today, 57 years later, what would that inflated selling price be at actual inflation rates?
Here is an inflation calculator:
Inflation Calculator
I plug in the numbers, and it spits out $44,626.67. Nice starting place, and an amount I that could probably not justify spending on a toy today!
-Paul
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Well, the 2022 Dodge Charger Scat Pack 392 starts at $46K, and it's (sort of) the descendant of the B-body....
The $5K 1965 investment in an A990 S/S Coronet would be like buying a Scat Pack Charger today... in monetary terms at least.
There's gonna be way more than 100 of these 2022's built, they don't even exist in stick-shift form, and the 392 will never be as iconic as the 426..... On the plus side, the horsepower figures are pretty equal, and the current Charger does feature twice as many doors, plus a fancy radio and heater.
4 doors are cool, right?
$45K for a 1 of 100 historically significant classic, or $46K for a mass-marketed "special edition" sedan.... if we had that kind of money for a toy, I think I know which one we'd both choose!
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If the pockets of us , the collectors , don't get deeper, we will not be able to afford the higher prices. I think this is all that matters in setting up the prices.
Ever since I bought a new vehicle, I have changed my habits. Used to go to drive thru-s once or twice a day. Now I go zero times and can't stop laughing when I am drinking my home made tea, thinking about how sad Tim Hortons must be with this change.
Gas went up - no problem. The new car seems to burn less gas in town and I have left it sitting on the weekends, accessing nearby hiking trails on foot.
Unfortunately all other prices will go up, including groceries which may change the dynamics of everything.
At the end of the day, it is the necessities of life that matter and stamps is not one of them.
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"What should I be willing to pay for an original 1965 Dodge Coronet A990 Super Stock? They sold for around $5000 new in 1965. Today, 57 years later, what would that inflated selling price be at actual inflation rates?"
The collector's value will likely be very different from its practical value. I imagine they did not have air bags back then and this will be only one item they did not have.
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How did collectors react to the inflation of the late 1970s and 1980s? I didn't get back into collecting until the end of that period. I would think the effects of inflation on the economy would have reduced buyer activity. If so, I would think those reduced levels of sales would have put downward pressure on stamp prices for a while. I know in the mid-1980s (or was it late 1980s?) that Scott did a major reset on their catalog stamp values. Was that a reaction to the inflationary/economic environment at the time or just something they felt was overdue?
Whatever the stamp market was doing in that earlier inflationary period, would it serve as an example of what we might experience in the next year or two?
Also, how do you expect Scott to react to what is going on now? Surely, at least the minimum value used in the catalog is likely to rise further. What else is likely? Will our current catalogs quickly become obsolete in terms of their stamp values because of the inflation?
(Note: my own crystal ball is in the shop for repairs!)
Tom
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Stamp prices will increase due to inflation in some market segments, others will stay the same, others will decrease.
It all depends on who is buying and who is selling in the various market segments and what platform is being used.
Retail prices or Auction prices can vary considerably and buyers and sellers have to be aware of the differences and only each individual can decide what market they "play" in.
If one looks at the responses on the " VERY OLD POSTSTAMPS ALBUM" thread below this thread you will notice that the "valuations" vary considerably depending on who has looked at the pages and their level of "expertise". What one person thinks something is valuable to them is not so valuable to the next person.
We have a saying in Old Caledonia "You pays your money, you makes your choice and you hope for the best"
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I was just thinking that the best stamp investment might just be Forever Stamps. If you bought the first ones you can still mail a letter today.
Other sure fire stamp investments like space se-tenants and souvenir sheets haven’t fared so well.
My recent postage for 60% of face lots have included a lump of 100 Apollo Suyez plate blocks. This week’s shipment included some July 4,1976 souvenir sheets we were told back then that these would appreciate like Zeppelins!
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The late 80s had several philatelic tectonic shifts, one being the monstrous revision to Scott and the other, far bigger, was the collapse of a stamp bubble that probably started in the 40s.
I just picked up a set of the 76 sheets at either face or slightly less at the local club auction. I can't resist them at that price, even though i have full sets in original folders as well as full FDCs.
Frankly, i don't see inflation affecting stamps (pandemic apparently encouraged a few new folks to use their down time to good philatelic effect). Supply and demand. Demand for any but the rarest is, in general, not likely to increase.
That's not to say that some pockets might increase mightily. I'm seeing it in a few corners, but overall, nah.
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"I was just thinking that the best stamp investment might just be Forever Stamps."
It will not be an investment that will generate profits for you, unless you bought a huge number of Forever stamps right before the domestic mail rates increased very significantly and then managed to sell the same forever stamps at face value - that new higher rate. Otherwise those stamps , just like our Canadian permanent value stamps are good to avoid inflation in postage rates, but they will not bring you more - they will bring just the same as what you had before the inflation of that service. I like using our "P" stamps even to make up international rates. A "P" stamp keeps up with inflation but a fixed rate $2.71 stamp will not.
I wonder what will happen come December 31st, 2022. Would the gas prices be that high and if so, how is this going to affect postage rates?
My bet will be the rates will jump up by at least 10%, should be more. If I could invest in "P" stamps in December and sell them in March 2023, I should have a 10%-20% gain in 3 months or less.
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Here in the UK we can buy Mint stamps at anything between 50 - 70% of face value. Even the equivalent of your Forever and P stamps. One can sometimes pick up mint hinged for less than 50%.
If one buys a rake of 1st Class stamps one day before a price increase you still won't be able to sell them at the new face value several weeks/months/years later. Therefore they are unprofitable in cash terms.
The only benefit one gains is using them for your own postage.
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and, in the US, there are slews of counterfeit stamps being offered at around 50% off. Sellers operate in the daylight and the USPS, well, it is rearranging collection boxes on the deck of titanic it is sailing towards those commemorative iceberg lettuce stamps
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"there are slews of counterfeit stamps being offered at around 50% off"
We have the same here in the UK.
Go onto ebay, search stamps and some of the very first items shown are forgeries
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"Therefore they are unprofitable in cash terms."
One should have been able to invest in these stamps / services and when the value goes up, sell and generate a profit.
I may ask at the local bank branch to get their heads spinning, if not for any other reason.
When they lend me money, I pay 4% interest every year. When I leave my money with them and it is frozen and they have it for many year, they pay me 0% interest. How is this fair?
But I cannot ask them either, as they will be scheduling an appointment 30 days down the line, which will happen to be on a busy day during work hours for me.
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"One should have been able to invest in these stamps / services and when the value goes up, sell and generate a profit."
The only thing definite in life is "death and taxes".
Value of any item is down to supply and demand.
Just look at what is available in the auctions here on stamporama. Thirty year old MNH stamps sell at below face value!
I would gladly sell you MNH GB stamps at face value which would also include the exchange rate from GBP to CDN!
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Ian, that is because they did not have 1st and 2nd class stamps in the past.
I bought a few MNH US stamps from the 40's from Paul, I believe at face value of 3 cents. You could mail a letter back then for 3 cents. Now the value of the equivalent "forever" stamp is 58 cents. Whoever bought stamps at 3 cents in the 40's and is selling them at 3 cents in 2022, lost 95% of their value. If they were all "forever" stamps, there was going to be no loss but no gain either.
Then with all that old postage, there is the added issue of cover surface and time to affix dozens of stamps on it, while still looking out of fashion to the collector receiving the cover. This is the reason why people don't buy those stamps for postage even at face value.
I still think I should be able to buy 20,000 or 40,000 "P" stamps in November and turn up a profit by the end of February.
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"I still think I should be able to buy 20,000 or 40,000 "P" stamps in November and turn up a profit by the end of February."
I wish you well in your endeavour but there again have you really thought it through?
Theoretically the price goes up 10 cents and you buy 20000. so a maximum profit would be $2000 but to entice someone to buy from you then you must sell below face value which cuts into your "profit". Lets say you half your " profit" to 5 cents so you are now down to $1000.
Nice profit if you can achieve it!
However
The price of a P stamp is $0.92. To Buy 20000 will cost you $18400.00. (I would love to see the look on the postal clerks face when you walked in, slapped $18400 on the counter and you saying "I'll have 20000 "P" stamps please!")
If you sell them in lots of 100 at $0.97 You need to sell 200 lots.
How many folkies will fork out $97 for 100 stamps to save $5.00?
Then there are the hidden costs of postage, packaging, what happens if $97 worth gets lost in the post, never mind the time and effort needed and the worry that what happens if you don't sell them all?
Most commercial companies who would buy stamps to put on their post or packages are already getting cheaper rates through meter machines so that outlet is closed to you.
It all looks plausible and great but when you come down to the practicalities it ain't worth the effort!
We have a saying in Old Caledonia "Great idea but its just Pie in the Sky"
If I had $18400 to speculate on stamps I would go to a few dealers I know and buy all their classic stamps, knocking down their prices at the same time and then sell them individually three months later and make a lot more than $1000.
But Hay-Ho who am I to stop such a budding entrepenuer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZTBDnj0 ...
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"
If you sell them in lots of 100 at $0.97 You need to sell 200 lots. "
Ian, my thoughts are slightly different.
I am not going to go to my local CP office to by 20,000 stamps.
I would rather contact Canada Post and say, I want to prepay for your early 2023 issues. I want to get 20,000 of the 2023 stamps reserved for me.
Then I go and pay them in late 2022.
Come 2023, the new rate of the "P" stamp will be $1.25 (my personal estimate, since there was no increase in 2021 and we had record inflation rates in the past 2 years).
Then I go back to CP and say, look I have your 20,000 new "P" stamps, but things changed, I see no use for them, would you take them back for $1.20/stamp ?
Something along these lines.
I do not even want to see or touch the physical stamps. Just a simple set of 2 transaction - one buy and one sell.
20% profit, which I am convinced I will get is worth it. (almost $4,000 in a couple of months)
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Aye It sounds good but what will you do if Canada Post says a big resounding "No you ordered them, we do not do exchanges/refunds, under Contract Law you are legally bound to take delivery of the items you ordered!"
Just remember that CP pays a printer to produce millions of these stamps so they do not need to buy a paltry 20000 at $1.25 each.
They might just might say you bought them at 92 cents we will pay you 75 cents each!!
I said before if I had $18,400 to speculate on stamps I know that within a few months I would at least expect to make at a bare minimum a profit of $9,000 to $12,000.
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09:29:35am
" ... I know that within a few months I would at least
expect to make at a bare minimum a profit of $9,000
to $12,000. ...."
And there lie the rocks and shoals upon which the
dreams of so many speculators have foundered.
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It reminds of gambling in Las Vegas. You hear about the big winners but no fanfare for the big losers.
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"And there lie the rocks and shoals upon which the
dreams of so many speculators have foundered."
Aye gambling is called a vice for a sound reason. There are always more losers than winners.
If you are going to gamble/speculate you must be prepared to lose all that you stake.
I've said it before the only sure fire things in this world are death and taxes.
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It is slightly different than gambling.
You know exactly when the rates will go up, if they go up.
You can also have some sort of a guess by how much they will go up. If it is 1 cent or 5 cents, you lose.
If it is 20-25 cents, one should be able to turn up a profit.
But I admit, provisions must be made with Canada post for this type of investing, and Canada Post has nothing to gain out of it.
So it is more or less mission impossible. It is nice dreaming, though.
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Jules, Its nice to have a dream.
Just don't have nightmares!
Our postage rates go up in the next couple of weeks so I thought I'd buy some 1st Class now. The shop I went into only had 2 Books of 4. I bought them and discovered that they were the New Ist Class ones so they've ended up in my collection! So much for saving money!!
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This is turning into the Seinfeld episode where Kramer took New York empty cans to Michigan to get a bigger deposit back!
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05:19:39am
" .... I've said it before the only sure fire things
in this world are death and taxes. ....
Plus, of course, "death taxes" themselves .
I wonder if, with the chances of my estate
exceeding the $10,00,000 threshold being
significantly less than nil, I should feel
fortunate to be exempt from death taxes.
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Approvals
I was thinking about this last night and am just throwing this out here for some thoughts. With the price of everything going up due to inflation I was thinking about the price of stamps we sell. Is stamp selling immune from inflation and should the prices just hold as is ? If I have an approval book and the lower valued stamps have been priced at 10 cents a stamp - should that be higher now ? I do not plan on making any price increases yet but this was just something that I was thinking about. Steve
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
I generally keep an eye on the auction houses. I can tell you that prices have been going up at the auction houses for the past 9-12 months.
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05:15:42pm
re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
I was just looking at Germany stamps during inflation and, uh…
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11:10:11pm
re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
I think the general train of thought is that Covid was a boost to stamps the last two years, with people stuck at home more and perhaps starting work again on a collection they had set aside. The current round of inflation due to Covid recovery and the war doesn't look to me to be good for stamps. With people paying so much more for necessities like gas and food, there's less money for luxuries like stamps. I suppose the contrarian view would be that with investments like the stock market doing poorly there might be a boost in collectibles as an investment, but that would only affect high value, high priced philatelic items. If anyone feels differently I'd be interested in other viewpoints.
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01:45:26am
re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
I concur with Speaker point of view. Another reason for inflation is scarcity of resources. In the case of stamps this does not suddenly increase.
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Approvals
re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
I also agree with Bill (Speaker)'s remarks. The stamp market has to do with supply and demand, just like most things. Inflation often occurs when there is something happening on the supply side, with the demand staying the same or even going up because of perceived scarcity. This is what we see with fuel, food, raw materials like steel, paper and plastics. One cannot say that's also happening for non-essential goods like stamps. The supply is the same, perhaps even going up because of collections that come on to the market because many collectors unfortunately died during the pandemic. As has already been said here, many people will have less to spend on luxuries like stamp collections. I would expect a price drop sooner than a price rise.
On the other hand, new stamps may be affected by the lack of paper, but then again, new (i.e. recent) stamps were impossible to find anyway.
best wishes,
Jan-Simon
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
The definition of inflation from my economics class was too much money (money supply) and too few goods. This definition was based upon monetary policy.
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
Increasing or decreasing price is base on demand & material cost.
Increase the price if there's high demand on that particular stamp.
Increase the price on stamp hinges if cost of polyester material went up.
.
We haven't seen any price increase for French Polynesian stamps due to low demand. However, there's price increase in stamp supplies such as stamp album or refill pages. This is due to material cost increase or shortage parts at manufacture.
.
.
I know a seller increased the price even thought those stamps aren't in great demand. The Seller did that because his grocery & gasoline went up. The inflation was hurting him & his family.
Rogelio Lee
French Polynesia Stamp Club
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11:20:41am
re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
If you are thinking of stamps as an investment, as I want to do, there are a couple of considerations.
1. Fundamentally, if you get sentimentally attached to any investment, you are bound to lose money. For many of us, our stamp collections have sentimental value, up until the time our heirs need to disperse them.
2. It is useful to keep track of the date and price you paid for items as you add them to your collection. Then, at any given time in the future, you can easily determine if their market value can yield a positive net return. I use the "Rule of 72s" as a rule of thumb.
Rule of 72s. Divide a presumed rate (e.g., inflation) into 72. That number is the number of years it takes for the starting value (what you paid for the item) to double at that rate of growth.
For example, if I bought something 24 years ago that I paid $10 for, and I presume that inflation averaged 3% over those 24 years, then to just keep up with inflation, I need to sell that item for $20 today.
72/3 = 24
That number, 24, is the number of years it takes the investment to double in value.
Example 2: If I want to both cover inflation (3%) and get a compounded real rate of return for the item of say, 15%, then I need to sell that same item for $640.
72/18 = 4 years to double
24 years/4 = 6 doublings
1 $20
2 $40
3 $80
4 $160
5 $320
6 $640
Kinda scary when you compare the opportunity to use stamps as investments to other opportunities. BTW, the difference is called "Opportunity Cost".
-Paul
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11:36:17am
re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
I am often looking at selling prices at the collector car auctions and considering if owning a particular car would have been a worthy investment.
What should I be willing to pay for an original 1965 Dodge Coronet A990 Super Stock? They sold for around $5000 new in 1965. Today, 57 years later, what would that inflated selling price be at actual inflation rates?
Here is an inflation calculator:
Inflation Calculator
I plug in the numbers, and it spits out $44,626.67. Nice starting place, and an amount I that could probably not justify spending on a toy today!
-Paul
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
Well, the 2022 Dodge Charger Scat Pack 392 starts at $46K, and it's (sort of) the descendant of the B-body....
The $5K 1965 investment in an A990 S/S Coronet would be like buying a Scat Pack Charger today... in monetary terms at least.
There's gonna be way more than 100 of these 2022's built, they don't even exist in stick-shift form, and the 392 will never be as iconic as the 426..... On the plus side, the horsepower figures are pretty equal, and the current Charger does feature twice as many doors, plus a fancy radio and heater.
4 doors are cool, right?
$45K for a 1 of 100 historically significant classic, or $46K for a mass-marketed "special edition" sedan.... if we had that kind of money for a toy, I think I know which one we'd both choose!
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
If the pockets of us , the collectors , don't get deeper, we will not be able to afford the higher prices. I think this is all that matters in setting up the prices.
Ever since I bought a new vehicle, I have changed my habits. Used to go to drive thru-s once or twice a day. Now I go zero times and can't stop laughing when I am drinking my home made tea, thinking about how sad Tim Hortons must be with this change.
Gas went up - no problem. The new car seems to burn less gas in town and I have left it sitting on the weekends, accessing nearby hiking trails on foot.
Unfortunately all other prices will go up, including groceries which may change the dynamics of everything.
At the end of the day, it is the necessities of life that matter and stamps is not one of them.
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
"What should I be willing to pay for an original 1965 Dodge Coronet A990 Super Stock? They sold for around $5000 new in 1965. Today, 57 years later, what would that inflated selling price be at actual inflation rates?"
The collector's value will likely be very different from its practical value. I imagine they did not have air bags back then and this will be only one item they did not have.
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
How did collectors react to the inflation of the late 1970s and 1980s? I didn't get back into collecting until the end of that period. I would think the effects of inflation on the economy would have reduced buyer activity. If so, I would think those reduced levels of sales would have put downward pressure on stamp prices for a while. I know in the mid-1980s (or was it late 1980s?) that Scott did a major reset on their catalog stamp values. Was that a reaction to the inflationary/economic environment at the time or just something they felt was overdue?
Whatever the stamp market was doing in that earlier inflationary period, would it serve as an example of what we might experience in the next year or two?
Also, how do you expect Scott to react to what is going on now? Surely, at least the minimum value used in the catalog is likely to rise further. What else is likely? Will our current catalogs quickly become obsolete in terms of their stamp values because of the inflation?
(Note: my own crystal ball is in the shop for repairs!)
Tom
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06:39:01pm
Auctions - Approvals
re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
Stamp prices will increase due to inflation in some market segments, others will stay the same, others will decrease.
It all depends on who is buying and who is selling in the various market segments and what platform is being used.
Retail prices or Auction prices can vary considerably and buyers and sellers have to be aware of the differences and only each individual can decide what market they "play" in.
If one looks at the responses on the " VERY OLD POSTSTAMPS ALBUM" thread below this thread you will notice that the "valuations" vary considerably depending on who has looked at the pages and their level of "expertise". What one person thinks something is valuable to them is not so valuable to the next person.
We have a saying in Old Caledonia "You pays your money, you makes your choice and you hope for the best"
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
I was just thinking that the best stamp investment might just be Forever Stamps. If you bought the first ones you can still mail a letter today.
Other sure fire stamp investments like space se-tenants and souvenir sheets haven’t fared so well.
My recent postage for 60% of face lots have included a lump of 100 Apollo Suyez plate blocks. This week’s shipment included some July 4,1976 souvenir sheets we were told back then that these would appreciate like Zeppelins!
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
The late 80s had several philatelic tectonic shifts, one being the monstrous revision to Scott and the other, far bigger, was the collapse of a stamp bubble that probably started in the 40s.
I just picked up a set of the 76 sheets at either face or slightly less at the local club auction. I can't resist them at that price, even though i have full sets in original folders as well as full FDCs.
Frankly, i don't see inflation affecting stamps (pandemic apparently encouraged a few new folks to use their down time to good philatelic effect). Supply and demand. Demand for any but the rarest is, in general, not likely to increase.
That's not to say that some pockets might increase mightily. I'm seeing it in a few corners, but overall, nah.
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
"I was just thinking that the best stamp investment might just be Forever Stamps."
It will not be an investment that will generate profits for you, unless you bought a huge number of Forever stamps right before the domestic mail rates increased very significantly and then managed to sell the same forever stamps at face value - that new higher rate. Otherwise those stamps , just like our Canadian permanent value stamps are good to avoid inflation in postage rates, but they will not bring you more - they will bring just the same as what you had before the inflation of that service. I like using our "P" stamps even to make up international rates. A "P" stamp keeps up with inflation but a fixed rate $2.71 stamp will not.
I wonder what will happen come December 31st, 2022. Would the gas prices be that high and if so, how is this going to affect postage rates?
My bet will be the rates will jump up by at least 10%, should be more. If I could invest in "P" stamps in December and sell them in March 2023, I should have a 10%-20% gain in 3 months or less.
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05:40:29am
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
Here in the UK we can buy Mint stamps at anything between 50 - 70% of face value. Even the equivalent of your Forever and P stamps. One can sometimes pick up mint hinged for less than 50%.
If one buys a rake of 1st Class stamps one day before a price increase you still won't be able to sell them at the new face value several weeks/months/years later. Therefore they are unprofitable in cash terms.
The only benefit one gains is using them for your own postage.
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
and, in the US, there are slews of counterfeit stamps being offered at around 50% off. Sellers operate in the daylight and the USPS, well, it is rearranging collection boxes on the deck of titanic it is sailing towards those commemorative iceberg lettuce stamps
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11:25:20am
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
"there are slews of counterfeit stamps being offered at around 50% off"
We have the same here in the UK.
Go onto ebay, search stamps and some of the very first items shown are forgeries
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
"Therefore they are unprofitable in cash terms."
One should have been able to invest in these stamps / services and when the value goes up, sell and generate a profit.
I may ask at the local bank branch to get their heads spinning, if not for any other reason.
When they lend me money, I pay 4% interest every year. When I leave my money with them and it is frozen and they have it for many year, they pay me 0% interest. How is this fair?
But I cannot ask them either, as they will be scheduling an appointment 30 days down the line, which will happen to be on a busy day during work hours for me.
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07:53:46am
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
"One should have been able to invest in these stamps / services and when the value goes up, sell and generate a profit."
The only thing definite in life is "death and taxes".
Value of any item is down to supply and demand.
Just look at what is available in the auctions here on stamporama. Thirty year old MNH stamps sell at below face value!
I would gladly sell you MNH GB stamps at face value which would also include the exchange rate from GBP to CDN!
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
Ian, that is because they did not have 1st and 2nd class stamps in the past.
I bought a few MNH US stamps from the 40's from Paul, I believe at face value of 3 cents. You could mail a letter back then for 3 cents. Now the value of the equivalent "forever" stamp is 58 cents. Whoever bought stamps at 3 cents in the 40's and is selling them at 3 cents in 2022, lost 95% of their value. If they were all "forever" stamps, there was going to be no loss but no gain either.
Then with all that old postage, there is the added issue of cover surface and time to affix dozens of stamps on it, while still looking out of fashion to the collector receiving the cover. This is the reason why people don't buy those stamps for postage even at face value.
I still think I should be able to buy 20,000 or 40,000 "P" stamps in November and turn up a profit by the end of February.
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09:07:05pm
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
"I still think I should be able to buy 20,000 or 40,000 "P" stamps in November and turn up a profit by the end of February."
I wish you well in your endeavour but there again have you really thought it through?
Theoretically the price goes up 10 cents and you buy 20000. so a maximum profit would be $2000 but to entice someone to buy from you then you must sell below face value which cuts into your "profit". Lets say you half your " profit" to 5 cents so you are now down to $1000.
Nice profit if you can achieve it!
However
The price of a P stamp is $0.92. To Buy 20000 will cost you $18400.00. (I would love to see the look on the postal clerks face when you walked in, slapped $18400 on the counter and you saying "I'll have 20000 "P" stamps please!")
If you sell them in lots of 100 at $0.97 You need to sell 200 lots.
How many folkies will fork out $97 for 100 stamps to save $5.00?
Then there are the hidden costs of postage, packaging, what happens if $97 worth gets lost in the post, never mind the time and effort needed and the worry that what happens if you don't sell them all?
Most commercial companies who would buy stamps to put on their post or packages are already getting cheaper rates through meter machines so that outlet is closed to you.
It all looks plausible and great but when you come down to the practicalities it ain't worth the effort!
We have a saying in Old Caledonia "Great idea but its just Pie in the Sky"
If I had $18400 to speculate on stamps I would go to a few dealers I know and buy all their classic stamps, knocking down their prices at the same time and then sell them individually three months later and make a lot more than $1000.
But Hay-Ho who am I to stop such a budding entrepenuer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZTBDnj0 ...
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
"
If you sell them in lots of 100 at $0.97 You need to sell 200 lots. "
Ian, my thoughts are slightly different.
I am not going to go to my local CP office to by 20,000 stamps.
I would rather contact Canada Post and say, I want to prepay for your early 2023 issues. I want to get 20,000 of the 2023 stamps reserved for me.
Then I go and pay them in late 2022.
Come 2023, the new rate of the "P" stamp will be $1.25 (my personal estimate, since there was no increase in 2021 and we had record inflation rates in the past 2 years).
Then I go back to CP and say, look I have your 20,000 new "P" stamps, but things changed, I see no use for them, would you take them back for $1.20/stamp ?
Something along these lines.
I do not even want to see or touch the physical stamps. Just a simple set of 2 transaction - one buy and one sell.
20% profit, which I am convinced I will get is worth it. (almost $4,000 in a couple of months)
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07:08:41am
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
Aye It sounds good but what will you do if Canada Post says a big resounding "No you ordered them, we do not do exchanges/refunds, under Contract Law you are legally bound to take delivery of the items you ordered!"
Just remember that CP pays a printer to produce millions of these stamps so they do not need to buy a paltry 20000 at $1.25 each.
They might just might say you bought them at 92 cents we will pay you 75 cents each!!
I said before if I had $18,400 to speculate on stamps I know that within a few months I would at least expect to make at a bare minimum a profit of $9,000 to $12,000.
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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
24 Mar 2022
09:29:35am
re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
" ... I know that within a few months I would at least
expect to make at a bare minimum a profit of $9,000
to $12,000. ...."
And there lie the rocks and shoals upon which the
dreams of so many speculators have foundered.
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
It reminds of gambling in Las Vegas. You hear about the big winners but no fanfare for the big losers.
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12:25:41pm
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
"And there lie the rocks and shoals upon which the
dreams of so many speculators have foundered."
Aye gambling is called a vice for a sound reason. There are always more losers than winners.
If you are going to gamble/speculate you must be prepared to lose all that you stake.
I've said it before the only sure fire things in this world are death and taxes.
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
It is slightly different than gambling.
You know exactly when the rates will go up, if they go up.
You can also have some sort of a guess by how much they will go up. If it is 1 cent or 5 cents, you lose.
If it is 20-25 cents, one should be able to turn up a profit.
But I admit, provisions must be made with Canada post for this type of investing, and Canada Post has nothing to gain out of it.
So it is more or less mission impossible. It is nice dreaming, though.
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10:44:43am
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
Jules, Its nice to have a dream.
Just don't have nightmares!
Our postage rates go up in the next couple of weeks so I thought I'd buy some 1st Class now. The shop I went into only had 2 Books of 4. I bought them and discovered that they were the New Ist Class ones so they've ended up in my collection! So much for saving money!!
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re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
This is turning into the Seinfeld episode where Kramer took New York empty cans to Michigan to get a bigger deposit back!
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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
27 Mar 2022
05:19:39am
re: What About Inflation And Stamps ?
" .... I've said it before the only sure fire things
in this world are death and taxes. ....
Plus, of course, "death taxes" themselves .
I wonder if, with the chances of my estate
exceeding the $10,00,000 threshold being
significantly less than nil, I should feel
fortunate to be exempt from death taxes.
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